Tuesday, 12 October 2004

Confessions of a Would-Be Wonk

I'm an elections junkie: when I was 14 I was hooked on a computer game where you were a US Presidential candidate and you had to move from city to city to try to gain the requisite number of electoral votes. Oh, and I'd memorised the number of electoral votes each state had. Which is why the Electoral Vote Predictor is on my blogroll. I've just discovered Prof Sam Wang's Meta-Analysis of State Polls page, which goes electoral-vote.com one step further by doing a Bayesian (well, it looks Bayesian) analysis of voting patterns: now his analysis shows the median expected outcome to be a perfect 269-269 electoral vote tie. Ooh. Drama up ahead.




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